What are you scared of?

vanessaFHalloween…the perfect time to think about things that scare us the most: monsters, ghosts, witches… and believe it or not my biggest fear has always been Business Development rather than anything else. I always connected these two words with the terrifying word ‘SALES’…

Just the idea of having to do sales gave me goose bumps. It is quite simply a role I didn’t feel comfortable with: it doesn’t come to me naturally and to be honest I also believed I didn’t have the skills to do it. If someone asked me I would say: ‘that’s not for me!’

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Four years on and still the media don’t get it

philS

A couple of weeks before the last US presidential election, we posted a blog here highlighting the difference between the media commentary (backed by a lot of individual polls) which showed the result was close, and the completely different story coming out of forecasting models such as 538.com which predicted a small but comfortable lead for Obama.

Allowing for the margins of error, the polls had actually done a reasonable job forecasting the national vote, but the media had significantly overstated the volatility of the election by ignoring known facts such as a party’s post-convention bounce almost always disappears by the time of the election.  In the aftermath of the election there was a brief period of glory for the best known of the forecasters, Nate Silver, and then the lessons from the election coverage were gradually forgotten and business returned to usual.

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